US Core PCE Misses: Is the Fed's Hike Off?
July core PCE came in at 3.0%, below the 3.3% forecast. Dollar fell, bond yields dropped, and stocks/gold rose on relief. October hike odds plummeted from 64% to 34%.
Choose the option closest to your current judgment.
Known and confirmed
- July core PCE came in at 3.0%, below the 3.3% forecast.
- Dollar fell, bond yields dropped, and stocks/gold rose on relief.
- October hike odds plummeted from 64% to 34%.
Unknown or unverified
- 核心PCE降温是否代表长期趋势逆转，还是短期波动。
- 美联储是否会因担心经济放缓而过度宽松，导致通胀反弹。
- 市场对10月不加息的反应是否已充分定价，后续是否有反复。
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